President Trump Will Win in 2020, According to Projection Models

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Donald Trump is the current President of the United States. That’s a sentence that I never thought I’d ever have to type, let alone discuss for the entire length of an article. You would think that statements like this would only exist in some sort of alternate universe but this is the harsh reality of the world that we live in.

And, unfortunately, it only gets worse.

According to Steven Rattner’s article for The New York Times, which outlines the details of three separate projection models, Trump is on the way to serving a second term in the oval office.

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If you’ve been living under a rock for the past couple of years, you may not know who this man is. No, no, I didn’t edit the picture. This is really what the 45th President of the United States looks like. Slightly too tanned, slightly too grumpy, but at least he’s wearing a nice tie. It might distract onlookers from the sour look on his face. Donald John Trump was born in Queens, New York in 1946 to Fred and Mary Anne Trump. His dad was an American real estate developer and Trump ended up following in his father’s footsteps. His biggest project, the opening of the Grand Hyatt New York, propelled him to be the city’s best-known developer.

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In 2004, he starred in the NBC reality series, The Apprentice, which later had its own spin-off, The Celebrity Apprentice. He even dabbled in the world of professional wrestling! Yeah, that’s probably a part of his life he wants to forget. (But we won’t!)

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It came as a shock to most people. How can a business tycoon with no relevant experience in politics be running for leader of the “Free World”? But to those that had been monitoring his interactions with the Republican Party, it was no surprise. Maybe he’s an extremely talented man, or maybe he’s just an idiot with a big mouth. Judging by some of his policies, I think I’d go for the latter option.

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Barack Obama’s time in office was quickly coming to an end, so it was time to find a replacement. Donald Trump versus Hillary Clinton. There were smiles, tears, emails and sexual assault claims. That pretty much sums up the state of the election process. Throughout its course, Trump opted to rally the troops with some very controversial policies, including a so-called “Travel Ban,” also known as the “Muslim Ban,” which was actually implemented in 2017. Trump announced that he would call for “a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States,” so that he could figure out a better method in screening the people coming into the country. As wild as that may have sounded at the time, it became one of his biggest selling points because America was growing concerned for their safety against extremist groups such as Islamic State.

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Of course, there was a lot of backlash to his controversial remarks, especially from celebrities who used their platforms to raise awareness on the issue. Nicki Minaj, a popular female rapper, spoke out against the “Travel Ban,” describing it as “harmful” because it takes hope away from individuals who immigrate to other countries in hopes of a better life.

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Scandal star, Kerry Washington was “sick to [her] stomach” upon hearing about the ban. She refers to the country’s history of rejecting immigrants that come from places of war and disasters and how awful it is.

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Rihanna was “disgusted”, referring to Trump as an “immoral pig” for enforcing such a horrid legislation. You go, Ri!

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Every single interaction between Clinton and Trump was interesting to watch. From experts analysing their body language, to seeing them blatantly insult each other on live TV, each debate sparked a new wave of conversation for the world. Trump’s lack of experience in politics was evident in the way that he spoke and the way he acted when others were speaking. At one point, during the CBS News Presidential Debate, Clinton was speaking to the audience and Trump just said “no” in a stern voice and everyone waited for him to elaborate on his little outburst. Not something you’d necessarily expect from the future President, but hey, it’s not like Trump ever adhered to the rules. It was precisely this that seemed to propel him to popularity, because everyone couldn’t help but talk about him. Good or bad, at least they were talking. Keep scrolling if you want to see Donald Trump attempting to dance!

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Against all the odds, he did it. Even despite all the sexual assault claims, the rumors about Russia influencing the voting and his lack of experience in the industry, he won the election. Now I may not be the biggest Trump fan, in fact, I despise the man, but he did what he had to do to become one of the most powerful people in the world and he did it. Credit to him. That is the main reason why I don’t doubt for a second that he could win a second term in power.

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Ray Fair, a professor at Yale, developed one of the models for predicting the outcome of an election. According to him, and his slightly complicated statistics, Trump is most likely to win another 4 years in power because of two main factors. The first is down to inflation rates and the second depends on the total value of goods produced and services provided in the country during a one year period. Because the American economy is actually doing quite well under Trump’s presidency. Although there have been stronger holds under other leaders, Fair believes that this has increased the chances of his reign.

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You may be thinking, how can one little model predict such a big outcome? I would agree with you, but Fair’s model has successfully predicted both of Obama’s wins and Trump’s first one, too. According to The New York Times, there was approximately 0.5% difference in Fair’s predictions and the actual outcome of Obama’s election wins. Impressive, huh?

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As much as I would love Trump’s reign to come to an end, it doesn’t look like it’s going to. Two other models have also predicted that he will win a second term in office. Though a lot of the polls are pointing to Biden snatching the victory by over 5%, all the expert models are sticking with Trump.

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In three short years, Trump has already managed to send ripples throughout the world. From convincing masses that global warming isn’t real, despite concrete evidence of its existence, to being on the brink of a nuclear war with North Korea, Trump’s drastic effects are having a massive impact on the way that the world works. And don’t even get me started on that horrid wall!

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If these models are correct, and Trump manages to claw his way to another victory, we had better prepare ourselves for more controversial policies and higher tax rates, because Mexicans have made it clear that they are not paying for the so-called “Wall”.

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If you’re suddenly feeling a little disheartened by this news, just think, even if Donald Trump manages to secure one final term in office, it’ll be his last one. Ever. And then we’ll never have to hear from that man again because he’ll probably be in jail for all of the crimes he committed while being President. Plus, another election means more new memes, so there could be one little positive to come out of this. So let me leave you with this GIF of the President of the United States trying to dance… If you can even call that dancing!

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